The forecast highlights the results of an econometric model that analyzes the relationship between a number of different indicators and job growth in the six-county Sacramento Region (El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo, and Yuba Counties). Job growth, or the year-over-year growth rate in Nonfarm employment, is one of the best and most closely monitored measures of regional economic performance. A forecast of this measure provides the business and economic development communities an outlook for the Region's economy 12 months into the future.

SRRI developed the forecast to serve as a forward-looking resource for the Sacramento Region's business and economic development communities. It is currently the only locally-produced regional economic forecast for the Sacramento Region.

JOB GROWTH OUTLOOK

Job growth in the six-county Sacramento Region will slow during the next 12 months, but will not drop into negative growth. The average job growth in the coming 12 months is expected to be 0.2 percent, slightly lower than the last 12 months, which showed fairly low growth of 0.5 percent. The forecast estimates year-over-year employment growth rates between 0 and 0.6 percent during the April 2008 to March 2009 period. Performance will be somewhat weak through the second quarter of 2008, improve slightly during the third and fourth quarters, and then slow again to low rates through the first quarter of 2009.

Sacramento Region Business Forecast
Sacramento Region Job Growth Outlook
April 2008-March 2009


Sacramento Regional Research Institute, April 2008
Data Sources: Historical from California Employment Development Department Forecast from Sacramento State-SRRI Sacramento Region Business Forecast model
Note: Job growth reflects year-over-year Nonfarm employment growth rates.

Sacramento Region Average Job Growth Outlook
Sorted by Sector Size


Sacramento Regional Research Institute, April 2008
Data Source: Historical from California Employment Development Department Forecast from Sacramento State-SRRI Sacramento Region Business Forecast model
Note: Job growth reflects year-over-year employment growth rates.

Most of the Region's major sectors will experience slower growth in the next 12 months compared to performance over the past 12 months. Forecasts for only three sectors show notable improvements in average 12-month job growth, including Professional & Business Services; Manufacturing; and Information. The most robust average growth is forecast in the small Natural Resources & Mining sector followed by the larger Educational & Health Services sector while Construction and Financial Activities show the weakest growth prospects. For the majority of major sectors, the third quarter of 2008 will be the healthiest among the next four while the first quarter of 2009 will be the slowest.